NSW Murray general security allocation has increased by 2 per cent. It is now 13 per cent of entitlement for the 2017/18 water year. This small improvement is from the settlement of end of year trade and water usage data rather than from improved inflows. June was very dry with Murray inflows likely to be exceeded 94 in 100 years (94% Annual Exceedance Probability).
This assessment is based on an average carryover of about 42 per cent, meaning that overall general security water availability is 55 per cent of entitlement. A final carryover volume will be available at the end of July, though no great change is expected.
^ Estimated, as account processing has not been finalised.
Upper Murray storage levels (as at 14 July 2017)
- Dartmouth Dam is currently about 78 per cent full, holding 3,026,000 megalitres (ML).
- Hume Dam is 73 per cent full, holding 2,199,000 ML.
The Bureau of Meteorology seasonal outlook indicates that below average rainfall conditions over much of the Murray valley are likely from July to September, with above average temperatures.
Atmospheric and oceanic indicators used to measure the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remain within neutral bounds, and similarly, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral. Therefore the Bureau’s ENSO Outlook is currently INACTIVE, with neither El Niño nor La Niña expected to influence Australia’s climate this year.
In the Murray, trade across the Barmah choke remains restricted to ‘no net trade downstream’. Downstream trade opens automatically to the extent of the volume of any upstream trade.
The trade restriction protects existing downstream entitlement holders from the risk of delivery shortfall caused by the limited physical capacity of the Barmah choke.
Water users are encouraged to monitor the MDBA website at http://www.mdba.gov.au/managing- water/water-markets-trade/interstate-water-trade/barmah-choke-trade-balance for information about the trade balance and status of trade.
Lower Darling water source trade is open, including inter-valley trade.
17 July 2017
High Security General Security Average Carryover
97% 13% 42%^
100% 100% n/a
Trade into (and within) the Murrumbidgee Valley is open, but trade out of the Murrumbidgee Valley is closed. Water users are encouraged to monitor the WaterNSW website at http://www.waternsw.com.au/customer-service/trading/murrumbidgee for information about the Murrumbidgee IVT account balance and the current status of Murrumbidgee trade.
The next allocation update for the NSW Murray and Lower Darling valleys will be on Tuesday 1 August 2017.
An updated probability analysis showing likely improvement in water availability under different
inflow scenarios, including the rocket diagram, will be issued again on Tuesday 15 August 2017.
Read the full update and outlook here