15 August 2019 Determination Updates

15 August 2019

Each state updated their seasonal determinations on 15 August 2019 as summarised in the following table.

Victorian Murray HR16%26%
Goulburn HR7%32%
NSW Murray GS0%0%
Murrumbidgee GS3%3%
SA HS18%68%

Entitlement owners and water users have been buoyed by the good increases in the two weeks since the last update on 1 August.

While there is room for some optimism, we need to be aware of where we are tracking against seasonal outlooks.

In Victoria, the Goulburn appears to be tracking on “average” inflows for the season-to-date however it should be noted that the projected determinations have reduced from 100% to 95% by 17 February 2020. Murray is tracking on “dry” inflows and likewise, the forecast determinations by 17 February have reduced from 55% to 52% (down from a forecast 70% at the beginning of July).

The SA outlooks are showing HS will receive 100% by 1 April 2020 under all inflow scenarios and even sooner if the inflows a “dry” or better.

NSW have provided no forecast determinations in the Murray system, while in the Murrumbidgee they are suggesting that under a “dry” inflow scenario General Security should receive 8% by 1 February 2020.

If the “dry” inflows do eventuate, there is likely to be substantial pressure on availability in the Murray system due to the Goulburn IVT and trade through the choke being closed. The ability to trade out of the Murrumbidgee is also closing rapidly.

H2OX will provide an update on water demand and availability in the coming weeks.

Contact us on 1800 988 118 to discuss the information above. Register with H2OX to buy or sell allocation for a flat $2.20 per ML.