The Victorian and NSW authorities released their outlooks for the 2019-20 season on Friday 15 February 2019.
The NSW Murray and Murrumbidgee announcements were made as part of the seasonal determination updates. High Security in both systems are expected to open on 97% and 95% respectively however determinations against General Security are likely to be 0% for the whole season without substantive inflows.
The Victorian outlooks for High Reliability are shown in the following chart. Very low opening allocations are forecast under Extreme Dry (Red) and Dry inflow (Yellow) scenarios. The Average (blue) and Wet (Green) will see modest opening allocations steadily increase over the season to reach 100% by February 2020.
The following chart is the outlook provided by Victoria in February 2018 for the 2018-19 (current) season. The impact of dry conditions and low inflows are easy to see.
Despite the forecasts from the authorities, allocation markets remained steady around $500/ML across all systems. More sellers have come to the market, generally volumes of <100ML, and there is just sufficient demand to maintain the price.